ESAT has reported that based on reliable sources TPLF is amassing troops on the border area with Eritrea. The main question is why? People are asking why TPLF is gearing up to start war with Eritrea at a time when the uprising in the Oromia region of Ethiopia is underway on top of the worst famine that hit the country in more than 30 years.
In addition, TPLF is at odds with OPDO as well as with its Western donors due to the excessive force it is using against Ethiopians in all walks of life not to mention the big and sensitive issue of TPLF giving a big chunk of fertile land to Sudan. There is also the issue of discontent within its military due to its racist policy of favoring those who are from Tigray in critical position of power in the military.
When you look at all these unfavorable situations that work against TPLF, you would think TPLF will retreat, regroup and use its diversionary tactics through compromise and elementary concessions. That is what Zenawi would have done. But the post-Zenawi TPLF mafia group is gearing up for war with Eritrea as we speak. Why?
Well, one or more of the following may be the reasons TPLF is desperately hoping to achieve.
1) The intensity of the armed struggle being waged by Arbegnoch Ginbot 7 and other armed groups is intensifying in the northern region of Ethiopia. Hence, TPLF thinks by indirectly attacking Eritrea, it can weaken the armed groups. TPLF may even try to directly attack the armed fighters if it has the intelligence information.
2) By doing so, TPLF hopes to distract the focus of Ethiopians away from the Oromo Protest that is underway in Ethiopia.
3) By hoping to gain the military upper hand, TPLF thinks it can boost the moral for its members and supporters. To show that TPLF is still on control and proving this fact to the protesters as well as to all Ethiopians who are contemplating to initiate an uprising similar to the Oromo protest engulfing the Nation.
4) By starting the war, TPLF hopes its Western donors to be involved and put pressure on them to hold Eritrea for “disturbing” the regional peace by harboring Ethiopian armed fighters in its territory and get some negotiated deal that works in TPLF’s favor.
There is one more fact that is confusing. How stupid is TPLF to gear up for war now when TPLF knows there is discontent in the military? It is possible TPLF may have already organized an army similar to Agazi like Sadam Hussein’s Republican Army mostly dominated with soldiers from Tigray and other reliable and dependable areas from other ethnic groups. This can somehow solve the grievance problem, according TPLF strategists, and may help TPLF achieve the limited objectives outlined above at least temporarily. May be.
On the other hand, I am sure Eritrea and the Ethiopian fighters operating from its territory are not stationary targets like a sitting duck. They will have their moves planned out to respond to TPLF’s possible aggression and may turn it into a victory parade in Addis Abeba. Who knows?
But still, war with Eritrea at this time is a big gamble where TPLF is playing with its fate and survival at a time when the odds are overwhelmingly stacked against it.
Will TPLF survive this gamble? It remains to be seen.